3rd thread - Ashes predictions

[Starfighter]

Is that really a prediction? Seems like it’s already happening.

More of an observation. The other Kohli similarity is that he'll be a ****.

 

[Gob]

Prediction for both the Ashes and afterwards: Archer is going to become the Virat Kohli of bowling. As in aside from actually having a brilliant career, he will get effusive praise from the media etcetera for so much as breathing.

The way Archer seems to generate so much pace through such an easy action really amazes me. All the express bowlers that I've seen over the years either had super long run ups (Lee,Bond) or extreme slingshot actions (Tait) or both (Shoaib). Archer just seems to amble in and roll his arm over and bang 95 miles. That being said there are obviously areas in which he should improve like pitching the ball a yard fuller. The way he keeps beating the bat on the shortish length is awesome and all but pitch it a little fuller and snag the edge. We really dont want another Morne Morkel do we

Also try to be a decent human being

 

[vcs]

Was Archer also bowling 95+ mph during the World Cup?

 

[Daemon]

The way Archer seems to generate so much pace through such an easy action really amazes me. All the express bowlers that I've seen over the years either had super long run ups (Lee,Bond) or extreme slingshot actions (Tait) or both (Shoaib). Archer just seems to amble in and roll his arm over and bang 95 miles. That being said there are obviously areas in which he should improve like pitching the ball a yard fuller. The way he keeps beating the bat on the shortish length is awesome and all but pitch it a little fuller and snag the edge. We really dont want another Morne Morkel do we

Also try to be a decent human being

There's also guys like Wood and Bumrah who can get it up there with a short run. Their actions don't look like a hot knife through butter though ofc.

 

[Daemon]

Was Archer also bowling 95+ mph during the World Cup?

Fastest recorded delivery in the WC was Wood at 154kph. Not sure what that is in the inferior non SI units.

 

[NotMcKenzie]

127.6 chains per minute

 

[Daemon]

Should come up with a CW speed scale

1 - Time taken to ban racist pricks

5 - Time taken for Adders to down 7 beers

10 - Time taken for Warne to start talking about declarations on Day 5


Archer was bowling at a rapid 9.5 CW imo.

 

[Starfighter]

The way Archer seems to generate so much pace through such an easy action really amazes me. All the express bowlers that I've seen over the years either had super long run ups (Lee,Bond) or extreme slingshot actions (Tait) or both (Shoaib). Archer just seems to amble in and roll his arm over and bang 95 miles. That being said there are obviously areas in which he should improve like pitching the ball a yard fuller. The way he keeps beating the bat on the shortish length is awesome and all but pitch it a little fuller and snag the edge. We really dont want another Morne Morkel do we

With respect to pace, according to CricViz (yeah, I know...) Archer's average was 140.9 over the course of the test, while Starc's average pace in tests this year is 145.53, Bumrah's has been 141.15, Wood's 140.47 and Cummins' 140.18. The difference between him and the others is that he is extremely variable, moreso than any other bowler I can recall (although Duanne Olivier is not too far off). I remember at least one instance where a bunch of 136-140 kmh deliveries sandwiched a 150 kph one. I can't think of another fast bowler who can send down a random ball 10 km/h faster than the previous.
I suspect that this is what makes it hard to play him, unlike what other people have said I don't think that the batsmen actually have much trouble picking up his length and he almost seems to telegraph his head-high bouncer, instead the short of a length skiddy ones are the ones that hit people, especially on a surface with some variable bounce. It's the pace variations that are hard to pick, and the relative slowness of his runup will also fool a lot of batsmen (although this can be gotten used to and was once more common than it now is).

With respect to the mechanics of generating pace, he hyperextends* a large amount, though I think not quite so large as Akhtar, while having longer arms than him, so it's not all that surprising that he can generate a lot of pace. Akhtar is actually an interesting case for a long, fast run, because his action was somewhat 'knee dominant' (back foot pointing backwards, back leg bowing type action, generate power from quads) which means he wasn't actually getting full value out of that run up. Archer is a conventional 'hip dominant' bowler (quick off back foot, straight front knee, generate power from glutes) who are usually better at transferring they momentum into pace, whereas slingers rely on strength and elasticity. The difference between Archer and, say, Wood, is the hyperextension and the fact that he straightens the hyperextension through delivery, in effect 'throwing' without being legally considered throwing.
Without that his 'base' pace (136-142) would probably his ceiling pace unless he adopted a more forceful action and faster run. Variations in the hyperextension are almost certainly the reason why his pace varies so much, and although no expert I would venture to suggest that it is why his short balls are faster than his fuller ones and he seems more comfortable bowling them. This because the straightening of a hyperextension is somewhat uncontrolled, and will both be more complete for a shorter ball delivered later in the swing, hence faster, and where there is that lack of mechanical control aiming at a closer spot may be easier with less error in line. I think it may give him some Charlie Griffith style unpredictability too.

*Although where extension (i.e. throwing) becomes hyperextension (which is considered legal) is hard to discern without fairly technical testing and an umpire would be justified in reporting him if they wanted to, Akhtar hyperextended if anything more markedly so he'll almost certainly be fine. I have seen at least one study instance which implied a bowler or bowlers being tested were doing both, which is interesting.

 

[Burgey]

Should come up with a CW speed scale

1 - Time taken to ban racist pricks

5 - Time taken for Adders to down 7 beers

10 - Time taken for Warne to start talking about declarations on Day 5


Archer was bowling at a rapid 9.5 CW imo.

11.4 - Time between threads about ODI greats started by Indian fans now Smith has come back to tests and made Kohli look like Wayne Larkins by comparison

 

[Starfighter]

Here's an example; Holding has just said that Archer 'will change the entire outlook of fast bowling in the modern era' because of his pace. It's like Starc's hitting similar speeds at times for the past several years and bouncing the English out last Ashes didn't even happen, let alone the Johnson series (or is that not 'modern era' any more?). This sort of thing really makes me wonder if it's not other qualities that influence peoples opinions.

 

[Burgey]

Mikey has always known which side his bread is buttered on. Has brown nosed English cricketers since he started on Sky years ago. It’s embarrassing

 

[trundler]

Here's an example; Holding has just said that Archer 'will change the entire outlook of fast bowling in the modern era' because of his pace. It's like Starc's hitting similar speeds at times for the past several years and bouncing the English out last Ashes didn't even happen, let alone the Johnson series (or is that not 'modern era' any more?). This sort of thing really makes me wonder if it's not other qualities that influence peoples opinions.

Even weirder considering that guy did what Archer is supposed to do but 43 years ago, having one of the most memorable series ever. Why do former players talk such bollocks at times? Must be told to generate hype I suppose.

Seriously though, how good was Holding?

 

[Burgey]

He was very fast and very good. Others were better imo but you’re talking by fractions when they’re all that good - Garner, Roberts, Ambrose, Marshall, Walsh (arguably) were all better, but that hardly makes him a spud, does it.

 

[Lillian Thomson]

Holding was as good as any of them. He has fewer wickets than some because he played less and is penalised in stats mongering because he never played against Pakistan.

As far as Archer is concerned to talk about changing the game is very premature. He needs to bowl a side out at least once first.

 

[trundler]

Yeah, just makes his statement sound even dumber. Calm yo ****, England. The rest of us know what a fast bowler is. Maybe try bragging to India.

 

[stephen]

Seriously though, Archer is fast and England aren't used to seeing bowlers bowl fast. Except Wood I guess. And Finn/ Tremlett a few years ago. In fact Archer isn't that special except that he does it so effortlessly.

 

[Daemon]

Yeah, just makes his statement sound even dumber. Calm yo ****, England. The rest of us know what a fast bowler is. Maybe try bragging to India.

bro Pakistan's fastest bowler is 34 years old

India has 19 year olds bowling faster than the rest of Pakistan

your best bowler has just retired from test cricket and the second best is a wannabe Philander who's looking worse every passing test

how times have changed

i'll give u Shaheen tho, kid's good

 

[vcs]

Seriously though, Archer is fast and England aren't used to seeing bowlers bowl fast. Except Wood I guess. And Finn/ Tremlett a few years ago. In fact Archer isn't that special except that he does it so effortlessly.

Tremlett wasn't that fast IIRC. Horrible to play for that brief period in 2010-11 when he was fit though, with that awkward bounce. One of those players where the CW "pick him, why isn't this guy getting picked" hype machine was actually justified.

 

[TheJediBrah]

I don't think Tremlett was really that good most of the time, it wasn't just injuries that kept him out

Absolute beast though, does he still bodybuild?

 

[Lillian Thomson]

Anderson is coming back in the last test and taking 19.

Anderson bowled 9 overs for Lancashire seconds yesterday. He might spoil your prediction by taking 14 in the 4th.