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Ashes Predictions

adub

Well-known member
Get in early with Cummins to break down in the county game between tests 2&3.
 

WalkingWicket

Well-known member
Well, I thought it were only proper that I got a computer to predict the outcome of the Ashes (well, my Don Bradman 2014 game, to be precise), and let me just say before we begin, it's a f***ing bloodbath. You'll see what I mean later.

Notes
-All line-ups stay the same throughout the series, nowt I can do about that.
-England rarely bowl Moeen. They bowl Cook, Bell and Ballance more.
-Scoring rates are crazy. Haddin has a series strike rate of 92. The lowest is just 44.
-Obviously pitches/conditions don't really occur, which would affect results/play in RL, but don't here.
-Click to enlarge overviews.

1st Test
DBC Ashes Test 1 Overview.png

The Ashes begin with Australia batting and a strong opening partnership between Warner and Rogers, broken just before Rogers reaches 50, trapping him LBW. Not unlike the Brisbane Test at the 2013/14 Ashes, he then deals serious damage to the Aussie middle order: Smith and Clarke caught behind for 8 and 4 respectively, and Shaun Marsh trapped LBW. Warner is removed for 82, LBW off Stokes, whilst Watson smashes a 30-ball 45 before being caught by Bell off Wood. In typical fashion, Haddin rescues Australia with a measured 79*, Johnson chips in a 50 to frustrate England, before he is dismissed, caught behind off Anderson. Broad, Wood and Anderson take 1-a-piece to wrap up the innings for 334. Not amazing, but strong.

And here it starts to go wrong for England. After what I can only assume is a torrid time, Cook is caught by Smith in the slips off Starc for just 2 off 21 balls. Thus begins the procession that doesn't end until late August. Siddle gets Ballance caught for 10, before Lyth and Bell put on a decent stand, but Lyth is caught behind off Watson for 43 and Bell is run out. Root and Stokes both make 40s, whilst Moeen makes 60 but can't kick on and England are skittled for 299.

Rogers and Warner open Aus' second innings with 40s, Warner scoring 41 off 33 balls before being bowled by Wood. Wood then gets Smith caught behind for a duck. Hope perhaps? Anderson bowls Clarke for 9 and England are fired up. Rogers is bowled by Anderson, but Marsh, under pressure to cement the No.5 slot, makes a classy ton (131 off 206) to take the game away from England. He is supported by every member of the lower order (49s for Haddin and Starc, 38s for Johnson and Siddle, and 35 for Gaz) and they post 460. No chance for England.

Cook falls for 2 again, caught behind off Starc. Lyth and Ballance are steady, before the latter is trapped LBW by Johnson and Lyth is caught behind off the same for 61. Starc then gets Bell caught behind for a duck, and Root finds Warner off Siddle for 13. Buttler makes a smooth 40, but defeat is inevitable, and wickets from Siddle and Lyon, and a run out, sink England for 280. Australia win by 215 runs. Johnson gets MotM for two decent scores and 5 wickets.

2nd Test
dbc ashes test 2 overview.png

Australia bat first again and are shocked by England - Mark wood has Rogers caught behind 2nd ball, then runs out Warner in the next over. Australia are shaking. But Steve Smith and Michael Clarke counter-attack and flay England for a century each (Smith 144, Clarke 112). Marsh makes 61, then Haddin comes in and blasts 132 off 116 to destroy England. Australia are eventually all out for 547. Mark Wood has figures of 25-128-5.

England start well but are never in it: Cook gets 35 before being LBW to Siddle, and Lyth makes a rapid 68 before being LBW to Lyon. Ballance is going well, 41 off 80, before he steps out the crease and is stumped by Haddin off Lyon. Australia then run through England, Lyon ending with 4 wickets as England are shot out for 219.

Australia do not enforce the follow-on, but rather go on an orgy of violent run-scoring - Rogers leads the way with 136 off 155, before numbers 3 through 7 all make rapid 50s. Jimmy Anderson bowls 40 overs for 200 runs and takes 4 wickets. Surreal stuff as Australia are bowled out for 563. England are set 891 to win. 891!

Safe to say, England don't touch it. 194 is as close as they get, with the only innings of note being a second Bell 50. Johnson takes 3, Starc and Lyon two, Siddle 1, and of course, two run outs. England lose by a mammoth 697 runs. Sweet Jesus.

3rd Test
dbc ashes test 3 overview.png

Any respite for England? Nah. Rolled for just 154 in their first innings, with Siddle and MJ taking four each. Only Lyth scores above 26. Australia then rack up 406-4, with a Warner 140, Rogers 70, and run-a-ball 80s for Clarke and Watson. Amongst it all, Shaun Marsh gets a first ball duck off Mark Wood. Classic.

England are steady in reply, but Cook is run out by Haddin for 22, and Bell and Root are dismissed for 0 & 1 as England struggle again. Lyon bowls Lyth and then runs out Ballance. Stokes makes a fifty, and Ali, Broad and Anderson 30s, but England can only set Australia 48, which is made inside 7 overs. Smith scores 33 off 13, and Stokes gets taken for 36 off his 3 overs. Mark Wood manages to bowl Warner for 3, but England have already lost the Ashes.

4th Test
dbc ashes test 4 overview.png

England start decently again in the 4th Test, with Cook and Lyth starting well, but Lyth is bowled by Siddle for 37, and then gets Ballance 1st ball. Johnson and Starc take 3 a piece as England stumble to 215 all out.

Australia lose Warner early again, caught by Ballance off Wood, but centuries from Smith and then Watson, as well as a rapid Haddin 72 ensure England are out of the game when they declare for 465-5.

England do decently in their second innings, scoring 303, but still the individual century cannot be found, as Lyth is caught agonisingly short for 99 off Watson. Bell makes 67 as England barely overtake Australia's first innings score to leave the visitors needing just 54, which the openers make undefeated in 10 overs, Broad's one and only ball going for four runs.

5th Test
dbc ashes test 5 overview.png

Once again, England start well, with several cheap top order wickets, Warner for a duck, Clarke for 8, Marsh and Watson for 18 & 16 alike. No batsman from #2-#11 scores over 32. Great, except not counting in the imperious 199* made by Chris Rogers in his final test match. This innings leads Australia to 313 all out, wickets shared amongst England's four seamers.

But not to be outdone, Mitchell Johnson takes a 5fer and only Bell makes a significant score with a 50 as England once again fail to make any sort of a score with only 179 on the board. So, trailing by 134, they are practically out of the game, and what follows only serves to deepen the humiliation.

Australia score a phenomenal 719 all out in their second innings (a curious anagram of England's 179). David Warner, after a relatively polarised tour, scored 291, plundering runs off all of England's bowlers, before he was dismissed by Anderson to fall 9 short of the historic triple hundred. Rogers made 59, Smith & Marsh 45s, Clarke 83, Watson 69 and Siddle 40 as Australia registered the 16th highest test score, and the second highest for 10 wickets.

England set a modest 853 to win, less than what they needed in the 2nd Test, but wickets from all off Australia's bowlers (Watson 3-32, Starc 2-42, Siddle 2-30, Lyon 3-74 - for some reason Johnson didn't bowl) mean they fall for just 178, losing by another whopping margin: 675 runs, as Australia whitewashed England in England for the first time(?).

Stats

Australia's batsmen understandably topped the batting charts.

Top runscorers:
  1. Chris Rogers [AUS] (10inns, 3no, 627 runs @ 89.57, 2x100s, 2x50s)
  2. David Warner [AUS] (10inns, 1no, 595 runs @ 66.11, 2x100s, 1x50s)
  3. Steve Smith [AUS] (9inns, 1no, 518 runs @ 64.75, 2x100s, 1x50s)
  4. Adam Lyth [ENG] (10inns, 0no, 451 runs @ 45.10, 0x100s, 3x50s)
  5. Shane Watson [AUS] (8inns, 2no, 450 runs @ 75.00, 1x100s, 3x50s)

In 6th place was Brad Haddin, scoring 447 runs @ 89.40, all at a strike rate of 93.22. Nuts.

Top wicket takers:
  1. Mitchell Johnson [AUS] (27 wickets @18.52, BBI: 5-60)
  2. Mark Wood [ENG] (24 wickets @ 40.58, BBI: 5-128)
  3. Peter Siddle [AUS] (20 wickets @ 27.00, BBI: 4-62)
  4. Ben Stokes [ENG] (19 wickets @ 47.84, BBI: 4-106)
  5. Nathan Lyon [AUS] (18 wickets @ 30.72, BBI: 4-70)

Stuart Broad took 5 wickets in Australia's very first innings, but in the 9 other innings, he took just another five, finishing with just 10 wickets @ 85.60. Anderson finished with 15 wickets at 70.20.
 
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OverratedSanity

Well-known member
Result: Australia 3-1
Leading run scorer: Steve Smith
Leading wicket taker: Josh Hazelwood
Surprise package: Adam Lyth
Biggest failure relative to expectations: Joe Root
Biggest failure (objectively): Gary Ballance
Surprise dropping: Stuart Broad after 3 horrendouse matches on the trot.
 

Adders

Well-known member
If Garry Balance does score decent runs in this series I am going to be bareing my arse to a lot of posters on this forum.
 

Tangles

Well-known member
Result: Australia 2-1
Leading run scorer: Steve Smith
Leading wicket taker: Josh Hazelwood
Surprise package: Cook to average 50 without Harris
Biggest failure: Lyon
Surprise dropping: Mitch Marsh
 

BeeGee

Well-known member
Well, I thought it were only proper that I got a computer to predict the outcome of the Ashes (well, my Don Bradman 2014 game, to be precise), and let me just say before we begin, it's a f***ing bloodbath. You'll see what I mean later.
Haddin and Siddle, ay? Yeah, ain't going to happen.
 

Furball

Evil Scotsman
Right, about time for this one.

Result: Heart says 3-1 England, head says 3-1 Australia. England. Just.

Leading run scorer: Cook, Voges
Leading wicket taker: Anderson, Starc
Surprise package: Brad Haddin will keep competently
Biggest failure: Bell
Surprise dropping: Bell
 

Pothas

Well-known member
Result: 2-2....ok 2-1 England.
Leading run scorer: Cook
Leading Wicket Taker: Broad
Surprise Package: Lyth
Biggest Failure: Smith
Surprise Dropping: Haddin

I have just decided right now that Broad is going to have a great series.
 

howardj

Well-known member
Result: Australia 3-2
Leading run scorer: Root, Rogers
Leading Wicket Taker: Andersen, Hazlewood
Surprise Package: Wood
Biggest Failure: Haddin
Surprise Dropping: Bell
 
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