General aviation thread

[Top_Cat]

We'll see. Tend to think the public has a short memory with this stuff. Boeing was doing it's own testing, nothing to see here, etc. with the rudder problems in the 90s and that affected every 737 flying. Boeing legit even tried to pin at least one of those prangs on the pilots.

This too shall pass = Boeing's mantra for the next 18 months.

 

[Spark]

We'll see. Tend to think the public has a short memory with this stuff. Boeing was doing it's own testing, nothing to see here, etc. with the rudder problems in the 90s and that affected every 737 flying. Boeing legit even tried to pin at least one of those prangs on the pilots.

This too shall pass = Boeing's mantra for the next 18 months.

Yeah, didn't they try to claim it was wake turbulence or something silly like that?

Idk. Times have changed; people are less willing to take established institutions - and Boeing certainly counts as one - at their word as they were in the 90s.

 

[Dan]

Not liking that you ****s have sent me down the wikipedia plane crash rabbit hole again.

 

[StephenZA]

The biggest problem Boeing is going to have is civil money claims; not from the people who died, but from the airlines themselves and everybody else who has lost money in the flights being grounded. Business can accept death but it can't accept bad reputation and loss of profits, Boeing will need to make amends for that and pointing at pilot error won't do.

 

[Top_Cat]

Airlines go down when planes crash, not manufacturers. This isn't the Comet and Boeing ain't the BOAC. Boeing are also the biggest lobbyists in Washington and own the FAA. I don't share your optimism.

I also don't hold out much hope for the regulatory environment to change much. Much of the deregulation started under Obama. Think the current admin is going to change any of that in favour of more oversight?

I'm no aviation analyst. Just can't see a world where a company that banks more than Facebook yearly is in any trouble at all when one sub-type of their fleet is having problems they'll be able to explain away and, soon, fix. It's ****ing disgusting and you only need to read Mary Schiavo's book to understand how cosy the whole shebang between Boeing and the federal government is. But the world ain't about to stop buying Boeing's planes.

 

[StephenZA]

It would become a fight between insurance companies. Airlines are going to claim from insurance, those insurance companies are not just going to hand over millions with no attempt at recovery. If Boeing is found to be even partly responsible the insurance companies are going to want at least some of their monies back. Of course this could become a 'to big to fail' instance with the same insurance companies covering everything... who will end up paying is concern for everybody. Boeing may get away with it, but not totally without consequence I don't think.

Also this is not going to be just about America and their interests, RoW has a stake in the consequences if the planes are genuinely faulty it would be a great time for the EU to give Airbus further 'help' if Boeing has ****ed up. I mean what is US going to do, start a bigger trade war?

But Boeing will have great positive press with the starliner coming soon....

 

[Top_Cat]

It would become a fight between insurance companies. Airlines are going to claim from insurance, those insurance companies are not just going to hand over millions with no attempt at recovery. If Boeing is found to be even partly responsible the insurance companies are going to want at least some of their monies back. Of course this could become a 'to big to fail' instance with the same insurance companies covering everything... who will end up paying is concern for everybody. Boeing may get away with it, but not totally without consequence I don't think.

Best of luck proving that part alone. I don't think you're really allowing for the lobbying power of Boeing here. They are the biggest in town. Bigger than any one ciggie company, BigPharma(tm), etc. Fairly sure only GE outspends them, the rest being associations, etc.

Also this is not going to be just about America and their interests, RoW has a stake in the consequences if the planes are genuinely faulty it would be a great time for the EU to give Airbus further 'help' if Boeing has ****ed up. I mean what is US going to do, start a bigger trade war?

And, again, it's only one sub-type. There are about 300 in the MAX fleet worldwide vs 1200 737s in the air at any one time worldwide. Let alone all the other Boeing types in the world. We'll see but I'm backing that the Boeing company ain't going anywhere and that the rest of world will view this as, corporately speaking, a blip.

 

[Spark]

Boeing can afford to lose a lot of money, of course, but it's already burned through a lot keeping the 787 program going through its problems and the 777x is still new. They do need the cashflow from the MAX to keep the good times going.

And everyone thought Airbus was having a rough start to 2019...

 

[Top_Cat]

They are, though. You're right. That's another thing Boeing has in its favour, Airbus isn't in a position to leap in and take advantage.

 

[Spark]

They are, though. You're right. That's another thing Boeing has in its favour, Airbus isn't in a position to leap in and take advantage.

Eh, I'd actually be more inclined to believe they couldn't take advantage if they hadn't killed the a380. Better to amputate the limb before the infection can spread etc etc.

Although yeah the a320neo backlog is way too big for them to really exploit this quickly. "Sure, we can get you some cut price a321neos. How does 2030 sound?"

I think the damage will come more with the airline reputation side, and they might squeeze Boeing to get bigger discounts to stay on board.

 

[StephenZA]

Best of luck proving that part alone. I don't think you're really allowing for the lobbying power of Boeing here. They are the biggest in town. Bigger than any one ciggie company, BigPharma(tm), etc. Fairly sure only GE outspends them, the rest being associations, etc.

I`m not denying their influence, lobbying power or size. The minute the FAA grounded the planes, there was a clear claim on Boeing if any problem is found with the MCAS system (which there already has been). All I think is that their will be potential civil claims through the insurance companies for businesses that lost monies, whether that will be resolved behind closed door deals is another matter. I don't think that it will bring Boeing down in anyway, it will eat into profits and a tax right-off given. Along with a patch job fix and some more deregulation.

 

[Top_Cat]

Eh, I'd actually be more inclined to believe they couldn't take advantage if they hadn't killed the a380. Better to amputate the limb before the infection can spread etc etc.

Although yeah the a320neo backlog is way too big for them to really exploit this quickly. "Sure, we can get you some cut price a321neos. How does 2030 sound?"

I think the damage will come more with the airline reputation side, and they might squeeze Boeing to get bigger discounts to stay on board.

Sure but reps are very flexible. For example, the protectionism coming with the Boeing-Embraer partnership for narrow-bodies will presumably spill over into the wide-bodies too regardless the colour of Boeing's press in the next 6 months. Couple that with a bit of strategic #MAGA advertising spend and there won't really be a thing Airbus can do about it.

 

[Top_Cat]

Update from the Aviation Herald.

On Mar 18th 2019 the airline clarified, the first officer had accumulated a total of 350 flight hours.

Holy ****. 250 is the usual for a CPL. 100 more to get one's ATPLs ain't much flight time for a jet FO.

 

[Flem274*]

Sitting in a departure lounge reading you ****s talk about plane crashes

 

[Ausage]

Sitting in a departure lounge reading you ****s talk about plane crashes

Ikr.

Two plane trips in the next month and I have to sit through this ****.

 

[Dan]

Couple of mates of mine have downloaded Air Crash Investigations in bulk. My memory may be stretching this a little, but iirc they've genuinely watched episodes throughout flights. Madmen.

 

[Top_Cat]

Driver in the jump seat saved the Lion Air plane the day before.

The combination of factors required to bring down a plane in these circumstances suggests other issues may also have occurred in the Ethiopia crash, said Jeffrey Guzzetti, who also directed accident investigations at FAA and is now a consultant.

“It’s simply implausible that this MCAS deficiency by itself can down a modern jetliner with a trained crew,” Guzzetti said.

Very well crafted.

 

[StephenZA]

From my reading it seems that you can switch the system off, but it is not obvious how. As always it is going to be a cascade of errors. Boeing have a poorly designed system with what appears some major flaws, pilot not fully trained on the planes (partly Boeing fault) but also airlines fault. Pilot making errors and not able to override when needed. Crash. The true horror for me here, is this appears all to be known, definitely after the first crash, and it appears that nothing truly constructive was done about it..... an extra 149 people dead because; 'meh as long as we continue to make profit. ' Not surprising but continuing human deplorability.

 

[Top_Cat]

https://leehamnews.com/2019/03/22/bjorns-corner-the-ethiopian-airlines-flight-302-crash-part-2/

Skeptical they got outside the safe flight parameters in one of these puppies but still, it’s a thing.

 

[Chewie]

Emirates CWC2019 A380