World Politics Thread

[Burgey]

Anyone claimed responsibility for that attack on the maternity ward yesterday? FMD if that isn't as low as you can go.

 

[Spark]

Plus Trump pulling troops out is more of a selfish choice on his part than a concession of defeat. He probably wants the army guys to help build the wall or something.

More to the point they've also not been pulled out yet.

 

[Spark]

Anyone claimed responsibility for that attack on the maternity ward yesterday? FMD if that isn't as low as you can go.

No one yet, but ISIS affiliates apparently have done this sort of thing in this neighbourhood (as in, this literal suburb of the city - big Hazara population) before. The Taliban hasn't said much either.

 

[Burgey]

****ing disgusting

I mean, all of these things are but some stick in the mind more than others I suppose

 

[hendrix]

Cite a source that says they control half the country. Like, any source.

And surely to win a war you have to achieve your own aims, which in the Taliban's case is to replace the central government and restore the pre-2001 order. They clearly are not yet capable of doing so. Why is the American-centric characterisation of the war the only valid one here?

from halfway through last year so slightly dated.

It's not that the American characterisation of the war is the only one valid, it's that they're the ones who have been supporting the military against the Taliban. If they're negotiating terms of retreat - which is what they're doing, read the terms, it is very clear - then yes it's a Taliban victory. I'm absolutely terrified of what this means but it's just reality. Obviously, it's not a complete 100% victory.

Maybe this new version of the Taliban will be more amenable to not killing and raping every ethno-religious group they don't like, and maybe the current government can broker some power sharing. Hopefully.

 

[hendrix]

here's a few terms of the "peace deal"

- US agrees all US and NATO troops will leave country within 14 months
- US agrees that 5000 Taliban militants will be released (without giving a crap about what the Ghani Government says about this)
- Taliban agrees that they won't let any other groups other than themselves operate in Afghanistan.

can someone please explain to me how we'd end up with those terms if the US and/or the Afghan government had any bargaining power?

 

[StephenZA]

My understanding was that the 5000 released Taliban where in exchange for the 1000 Afghan security forces, that began the negotiation between the Afghan government and the Taliban? Also the USA will still have troops in Afghanistan while those negotiations are taking place?

 

[hendrix]

My understanding was that the 5000 released Taliban where in exchange for the 1000 Afghan security forces, that began the negotiation between the Afghan government and the Taliban? Also the USA will still have troops in Afghanistan while those negotiations are taking place?

There were no negotiations between Taliban and afghan government IIRC - they refused to negotiate with them and only wanted to negotiate with the US - which gives a lovely rosey picture of things to come doesn't it?

the negotiations finished. US is pulling out 5000 troops in the next couple of months, with the remaining 8 or so thousand to go over the next 14 months.

 

[Spark]

here's a few terms of the "peace deal"

- US agrees all US and NATO troops will leave country within 14 months
- US agrees that 5000 Taliban militants will be released (without giving a crap about what the Ghani Government says about this)
- Taliban agrees that they won't let any other groups other than themselves operate in Afghanistan.

can someone please explain to me how we'd end up with those terms if the US and/or the Afghan government had any bargaining power?

I mean, the personality and attention span of the current US head of government needs to be taken into account here.

 

[StephenZA]

There were no negotiations between Taliban and afghan government IIRC - they refused to negotiate with them and only wanted to negotiate with the US - which gives a lovely rosey picture of things to come doesn't it?

the negotiations finished. US is pulling out 5000 troops in the next couple of months, with the remaining 8 or so thousand to go over the next 14 months.

I know that the Taliban have consistently refused to negotiation with Afghan government. But part of the current USA negotiation and withdrawal was that the Taliban and Afghan government start talking during the withdrawal process, which starts with a prisoner exchange. Truthfully, I don't know enough to really comment. It was just what I read from the normal news pieces.

 

[StephenZA]

I mean, the personality and attention span of the current US head of government needs to be taken into account here.

It will be interesting to see what happens long term if Trump is not given a 2nd term. Lots of publicity around bringing these troops home that is important for Trump.

 

[Spark]

I know that the Taliban have consistently refused to negotiation with Afghan government. But part of the current USA negotiation and withdrawal was that the Taliban and Afghan government start talking during the withdrawal process, which starts with a prisoner exchange. Truthfully, I don't know enough to really comment. It was just what I read from the normal news pieces.

I believe that was the idea but the US decided that **** it, they're bored of this, and decided to cut whatever deal they could get at the time.

As I keep saying, this is most likely because US domestic politics was being prioritised and with the objective situation in Afghanistan being of very much secondary import.

It will be interesting to see what happens long term if Trump is not given a 2nd term. Lots of publicity around bringing these troops home that is important for Trump.

Exactly. This withdrawal has ****-all to do with the Taliban "winning" and everything to do with Trump wanting to spruik something for his re-election.

 

[smalishah84]

I believe that was the idea but the US decided that **** it, they're bored of this, and decided to cut whatever deal they could get at the time.

As I keep saying, this is most likely because US domestic politics was being prioritised and with the objective situation in Afghanistan being of very much secondary import.



Exactly. This withdrawal has ****-all to do with the Taliban "winning" and everything to do with Trump wanting to spruik something for his re-election.

The problem also is that its a stalemate. The US can't win the country until it relaunches a full scale invasion again. Again, even historically, Afg has been easy to take over, but hard to retain and control. There is no control right now. after almost 2 decades of building up the ANA it is still not in any condition to defeat the Taliban. Not to mention, by all accounts it is super corrupt. Already a trillion dollars have been spent with no result in sight. When does the US realize that enough is enough and we need to cut our losses and head back? Every president since GW(?) realizes this but nobody wants withdrawal on their own watch and get to take the blame for "defeat".

 

[hendrix]

I believe that was the idea but the US decided that **** it, they're bored of this, and decided to cut whatever deal they could get at the time.

As I keep saying, this is most likely because US domestic politics was being prioritised and with the objective situation in Afghanistan being of very much secondary import.



Exactly. This withdrawal has ****-all to do with the Taliban "winning" and everything to do with Trump wanting to spruik something for his re-election.

Why has the current peace deal made zero concessions to the current Government of Afghanistan? How can you even call it a peace deal when it has zero mention of the current government? Where is the power sharing agreement? I mean I'm no Trump fan but what exactly was his bargaining plan and how does this make him look good? He becomes the President who negotiated with terrorists?

I hate it as much as anyone but this is a win for Taliban unless you're looking for from the most obtuse of perspectives.

The problem also is that its a stalemate. The US can't win the country until it relaunches a full scale invasion again. Again, even historically, Afg has been easy to take over, but hard to retain and control. There is no control right now. after almost 2 decades of building up the ANA it is still not in any condition to defeat the Taliban. Not to mention, by all accounts it is super corrupt. Already a trillion dollars have been spent with no result in sight. When does the US realize that enough is enough and we need to cut our losses and head back? Every president since GW(?) realizes this but nobody wants withdrawal on their own watch and get to take the blame for "defeat".

It's probably always going to be the wild west, but it'd be nice to believe it'd turn into some Cribbertopia or something rather than a place controlled by fundamentalist nutjobs who also have sexual tendencies involving exploiting prepubescent boys.

 

[Spark]

Why has the current peace deal made zero concessions to the current Government of Afghanistan? How can you even call it a peace deal when it has zero mention of the current government? Where is the power sharing agreement? I mean I'm no Trump fan but what exactly was his bargaining plan and how does this make him look good? He becomes the President who negotiated with terrorists?

All excellent questions to be posed to the Trump Administration. I would posit that they were not actually seriously considered at the highest levels of government beforehand.

 

[smalishah84]

Why has the current peace deal made zero concessions to the current Government of Afghanistan? How can you even call it a peace deal when it has zero mention of the current government? Where is the power sharing agreement? I mean I'm no Trump fan but what exactly was his bargaining plan and how does this make him look good? He becomes the President who negotiated with terrorists?

I hate it as much as anyone but this is a win for Taliban unless you're looking for from the most obtuse of perspectives.

.

The Afghan govt wasn't involved in the "negotiations" because, honestly, how much power does the Afghan govt really have? They are dependent on the US for everything, from running the govt to providing security to districts that are under control to making sure that the contested districts don't completely fall over to the Taliban.

The US knows that the Afghan govt won't be able to hold on for too long once its gone. The taliban know this too. So yeah, in short I agree with your assessment of the war so far