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Introducing Live Odds: Track betting site and cricrate odds during match

weldone

weldone

Well-known member
With each passing season, T20 par scores are clearly rising. When T20 started, the par was around 150. But nowadays par is possibly somewhere between 170 and 175. Do you take that into account?
 
viriya

viriya

Well-known member
weldone said:
With each passing season, T20 par scores are clearly rising. When T20 started, the par was around 150. But nowadays par is possibly somewhere between 170 and 175. Do you take that into account?
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I've been doing that with ODIs, will probably add a rolling window for T20s too.

More pressing issues though - odds don't show up sometimes near the end of the game which I haven't figured out yet.
 
weldone

weldone

Well-known member
viriya said:
I've been doing that with ODIs, will probably add a rolling window for T20s too.
Click to expand...
It's important. Your current odds are biased towards the team batting first. When the team batting first is scoring around 160, your odds are assigning around 50% winning probability to them - but it should be much less than that as you can see the par score in IPL matches this season seems to be around 175 (180+ when playing in Mumbai and Bangalore).
 
viriya

viriya

Well-known member
weldone said:
It's important. Your current odds are biased towards the team batting first. When the team batting first is scoring around 160, your odds are assigning around 50% winning probability to them - but it should be much less than that as you can see the par score in IPL matches this season seems to be around 175 (180+ when playing in Mumbai and Bangalore).
Click to expand...
I feel like an idiot asking this but wanted to confirm - there is no powerplay or anything similar in T20s right?
 
viriya

viriya

Well-known member
weldone said:
It's important. Your current odds are biased towards the team batting first. When the team batting first is scoring around 160, your odds are assigning around 50% winning probability to them - but it should be much less than that as you can see the par score in IPL matches this season seems to be around 175 (180+ when playing in Mumbai and Bangalore).
Click to expand...
Actually I checked my FT20 db (IPL, BBL, CPL), and the average first innings score has been remarkably steady since the beginning. The only discernible difference I see is pre-2014 and post, where pre-2014 the average score is 156 and post it is 160 - just a 3% difference.

I do see a clear difference for the last year's FT20s (04/16 - now) though where the average score goes up to 165 - this might be what you're pointing out. So it's a very recent phenomenon. Would probably just have to add a ad-hoc adjustment because ignoring all pre-04/2016 matches for odds is not an option (leaves <100 matches to work with).
 
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weldone

weldone

Well-known member
viriya said:
Actually I checked my FT20 db (IPL, BBL, CPL), and the average first innings score has been remarkably steady since the beginning. The only discernible difference I see is pre-2014 and post, where pre-2014 the average score is 156 and post it is 160 - just a 3% difference.

I do see a clear difference for the last year's FT20s (04/16 - now) though where the average score goes up to 165 - this might be what you're pointing out. So it's a very recent phenomenon. Would probably just have to add a ad-hoc adjustment because ignoring all pre-04/2016 matches for odds is not an option (leaves <100 matches to work with).
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Some kind of factor will work.

For example, if pre-2014 average was 150 and the current average is 165 then for pre-2014 matches for all scenarios include a (165-150)/150 i.e. 10% factor. Chasing 80 in last 10 overs with 7 wickets remaining will be like chasing 88 in last 10 overs with 7 wickets remaining now.
 
viriya

viriya

Well-known member
weldone said:
Some kind of factor will work.

For example, if pre-2014 average was 150 and the current average is 165 then for pre-2014 matches for all scenarios include a (165-150)/150 i.e. 10% factor. Chasing 80 in last 10 overs with 7 wickets remaining will be like chasing 88 in last 10 overs with 7 wickets remaining now.
Click to expand...
Added an adjustment for scores post-2014 to reflect how T20s are more high scoring now.
 
viriya

viriya

Well-known member
Added odds derived from machine learning algorithms in addition to the base odds:
cricrate | Live Odds

In addition to the usual features, the ML odds consider Team Rating Difference and Batting and Bowling Rating difference as features. Overall, the ML odds are 5-10% better than the base odds.
 
weldone

weldone

Well-known member
Just wondering why 3 overs have been bowled and yet the KXIP vs GL match isn't showing in live odds...
 
viriya

viriya

Well-known member
weldone said:
Northants vs Warwickshire has frozen.
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Unfortunately I have to catch these issues live on a day I'm working from home.

Yesterday the script just didn't auto-start for some reason.

Thanks for pointing these out btw - I want to get this to a reliable spot so I can gather more data and iteratively improve the odds.
 
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