2017 NZ General Election

[Athlai]

September 23.

Moving Arden into deputy position has gotten me a lot more interested in the current Labour party. Good move IMO. Will be interested to see if we see much more change in the party.

 

[Bahnz]

Don't see this one being close. All the recent polls have shown the Nats to be pretty steady in the high 40's while Greabour hang back at 40. Winston once again looking likely to hold the balance of power, and I'm sure he'd prefer to be the only coalition partner in a Government. He hates the Greens and has historically tended to side with the party that wins the most votes.

However, Labour's done absolutely the right thing in promoting Arden to deputy. That way they can start readying things for her to take over if (as appears likely) things don't turn out the way they hope in September. Genuine coalition partnerships (unlike the faux-alition govts of the 8 years) never tend to do very well as they get rapidly pulled apart by their own irreconcilable differences. That'll create fertile ground for a Labour resurgence and Arden would be in the box seat to win in 2020.

 

[straw man]

I'm backing Jacinda - Little promising generational change

It's Ardern btw.

 

[Athlai]

Couldn't Winston theoretically become prime minister if he sided with Labour/Greens?

 

[wellAlbidarned]

wait we still have elections?

 

[Dan]

Winston4PM

 

[Howe_zat]

Is anyone campaigning on a change the flag platform?

I want to know if I can have an opinion in this

 

[Flem274*]

The idea of Winston deciding an election disgusts me. Represents the worst of mainstream political thinking scattered amongst the older generations.

English sucks. Coasted along on Cullen's surplus and steals his credit for saving NZ from the recession. No surprises he managed to call an entire voter bloc drug addicts this week. If National could get crushed this election and all the social conservatives and incompetents were thrown out in favour of the libertarian lite brigade that would be great, not because I'm libertarian but because social conservatism sucks. Now that Key (an ATG PR politician - everything he wanted copped huge protest but he himself remained untouchable) is gone some of the muppets like Bridges, Smith, Collins and Bennett are going to have to work harder to convince the swing voters they've got something between their ears.

Adern is gun. Can't believe the likes of her and Robertson were stuck behind narcissists like Cunliffe for years.

National will probably win though. NZ feels a very centre right country atm.

 

[Athlai]

Wouldn't surprise me to see National struggle a bit in coming months, English is definitely a seasoned campaigner but Bennett is poison and the more exposure given will inspire the public less and less.

Of course that would pretty much only guarantee a NZFirst decide the election scenario. Sooooo meh.

 

[_Ed_]

Extremely unlikely to happen this close to an election, but IMO Labour's chances will be far better if Ardern overthrows Little ASAP. Stronger candidate in every way.

 

[Athlai]

Extremely unlikely to happen this close to an election, but IMO Labour's chances will be far better if Ardern overthrows Little ASAP. Stronger candidate in every way.

Too big a change up IMO. Deputy now and she can take over 2020/2023.

 

[Bahnz]

The idea of Winston deciding an election disgusts me. Represents the worst of mainstream political thinking scattered amongst the older generations.

English sucks. Coasted along on Cullen's surplus and steals his credit for saving NZ from the recession. No surprises he managed to call an entire voter bloc drug addicts this week. If National could get crushed this election and all the social conservatives and incompetents were thrown out in favour of the libertarian lite brigade that would be great, not because I'm libertarian but because social conservatism sucks. Now that Key (an ATG PR politician - everything he wanted copped huge protest but he himself remained untouchable) is gone some of the muppets like Bridges, Smith, Collins and Bennett are going to have to work harder to convince the swing voters they've got something between their ears.

Adern is gun. Can't believe the likes of her and Robertson were stuck behind narcissists like Cunliffe for years.

National will probably win though. NZ feels a very centre right country atm.

I really don't think English sucks. He's an intelligent man with a strong focus on well-directed productive investment in New Zealand's social capital. Yes he benefitted from Cullen leaving NZ with historically low debt, but he also did a very good job of balancing the need to reign in spending whilst ensuring the Economy didn't get completely poleaxed as happened in the UK. He's also doing a pretty good job of more or less single-handedly making National acceptable to Maori NZers.

PM Bill English gave two speeches on Waitangi Day. Both were remarkable. Both were almost entirely ignored |

Having said that there are things I really don't like about him (his social conservatism - though he's obviously paring that back now that he's taken the leadership; and his soft climate change denialism in particular).

 

[Athlai]

The courting of Peters begins

Labour nominates Winston Peters to key intelligence committee | Stuff.co.nz

 

[Flem274*]

I really don't think English sucks. He's an intelligent man with a strong focus on well-directed productive investment in New Zealand's social capital. Yes he benefitted from Cullen leaving NZ with historically low debt, but he also did a very good job of balancing the need to reign in spending whilst ensuring the Economy didn't get completely poleaxed as happened in the UK. He's also doing a pretty good job of more or less single-handedly making National acceptable to Maori NZers.

PM Bill English gave two speeches on Waitangi Day. Both were remarkable. Both were almost entirely ignored |

Having said that there are things I really don't like about him (his social conservatism - though he's obviously paring that back now that he's taken the leadership; and his soft climate change denialism in particular).

That article is impressive, credit where it's due to English.

He's a solid enough book keeper, and his Minister of Finance years of stability is what he should 100% campaign on, but NZ were always going to make it through that recession in some form of relative good shape because we had money in the bank. I hated Michael Cullen as a kid because teenage Phlegm voted based on the smug look on Cullen's face, but damn did he do a good job with the money and created a solid rainy day fund for the next time the economy tanked despite copping public, media and political pressure to spend it.

I guess I just find his negatives far more off putting than you do, which is fair enough. I don't want to have a PM stuck in the 1950s who denies climate change etc. I think Little is mediocre as far as Labour leaders go (though apparently many who meet him come away surprised and impressed) but I'm probably going to hold my nose and vote for him because I'm not a fan of the other realistic alternatives.

I'll settle for the party that proposes kicking out Auckland.

 

[Bahnz]

The first major policy story of the 2017 election breaking today:

PM Bill English announces Super changes - National - NZ Herald News

Will be interesting to see the fallout from this. Tend to think the only party that will make much hay out of it will be NZ First. Greabour have been campaigning for pensions reform so I would imagine all they can really say is that this policy doesn't go nearly far enough (which is I think is a fair criticism) - though then again Labour's position may have changed under Little, not sure. Still, doesn't strike me as a politically smart move - very much the kind of move that John Key would avoid with a 10 foot pole. It's not going to have a significant impact on the LR budget, and will only invite criticism.

 

[hendrix]

Well it's certainly something, but should be phased in next year, not 2040 when all the baby boomers will be well retired...

 

[Bahnz]

Well it's certainly something, but should be phased in next year, not 2040 when all the baby boomers will be well retired...

You can't phase it in straight away. People will have planned their whole lives around the assumption that super will be coming in at a certain point in time, it's not fair to suddenly say - nope that two years of income that you'd been banking on is gone. At least not without means testing things - which I can tell you from experience opens up an enormous can of policy worms (and I imagine a fairly large number of political worms as well). But yeah, 2040 does seem too fair off. 2030ish would seem to me a better start point - 10 years of awareness should be enough for the majority to adjust given that most people are making the majority of their income during their final working years.

 

[hendrix]

You can't phase it in straight away. People will have planned their whole lives around the assumption that super will be coming in at a certain point in time, it's not fair to suddenly say - nope that two years of income that you'd been banking on is gone. At least not without means testing things - which I can tell you from experience opens up an enormous can of policy worms (and I imagine a fairly large number of political worms as well). But yeah, 2040 does seem too fair off. 2030ish would seem to me a better start point - 10 years of awareness should be enough for the majority to adjust given that most people are making the majority of their income during their final working years.

yeah obviously, I'm talking about what should've been planned for 15 years ago not now.

 

[Flem274*]

Yeah it's about time. Key and Clark both dodged this one because no one wants to believe we can't sustain a ridiculous number of pensions (well we can if we crush those still working which suits those nearing retirement just fine).

 

[wellAlbidarned]

Yeah it's about time. Key and Clark both dodged this one because no one wants to believe we can't sustain a ridiculous number of pensions (well we can if we crush those still working which suits those nearing retirement just fine).

shut up you ungrateful entitled little **** etc