The other thing is that raising the drinking age and having places shut earlier does work from a political standpoint. There's actually quite a bit of evidence, stemming mainly from experiments in Newcastle* that the incidence of alcohol-related violence decreased quite a bit (see Kyp Kypri's work**) and there's similar with regards raising the drinking age. The rationale goes that people are generally law-abiding, rational people and upon seeing a hard limit, will respond accordingly and either wait until of age or keep a lid on it until then. Those who drink to hardcore levels are in the minority, will do so regardless of what laws are in place, etc. That's the rationale. So, yes, measures like this
do bring the numbers down. However, there are many, many problems and limitations with studies like these but they're almost imposible to measure, let alone allow for in the models.
For example, the research has been clear for many years that there are several age correlates with alcohol; older people (until about 60) drink much, much less than younger people. Increasing drink prices, increased police precense, restrictions on opening hours have, likely, driven older people away to have a drink at home instead. So, already you see an increase in the proportions of those being victims of and admitting to perpetrating violent assaults
around licensed prems. Solution? Crack down. Response? Alcohol-related violence drops, mainly because the opportunity to drink whilst out and about decreases. Future consequences? Unmeasurable (have no idea of the levels of alcohol-related violence outside of licensed prems) so we assume the measures are working. I know of several researchers in the area experimenting with composite measures but they are incredibly easy to criticise so plugging and chugging into a model becomes a very iffy exercise but, well, at least it gets the next grant.
Incidentally, watch out for the new black in this area; outlet density. It partly explains why the only people concerned about licensed prems' closures are the owners of licensed prems (and bands
). Some of the other measures being suggested make ya laugh, though; American researchers have experimented with having people in licensed prems whose specific job is to pull up anyone getting somewhat loosed to tone it down a teenth. Some would say that's the role older people in licensed prems played before they were driven away......
* Yes, yes, I know, Newcastle's generalisability is limited. Absolutely a valid criticism of those studies.
** Know this fella, hung out with him at a conference dinner last year, I didn't drink and he got utterly schtonkered but rocked up the next day like nothing had happened. Solid. Pretty sure there's a word for someone who heavily advocates restrictions on something they so joyously engage in, though.