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**Official** COVID-19 Discussion

B

Bolo.

Well-known member
Athlai said:
Zorax is easy (and fun) to dismiss sometimes, but his mindset towards some of these things provided a fascinating insight into points of views towards "democracy" that I hadn't really considered.
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What I find fascinating is that Zorax, pretty much the only regular on the site with a justifiable personal vendetta against the CPC, is also pretty much the only person willing to bring any nuance into the discussion.

Anyway, we are gunking this thread up too much with stuff that is barely related to the virus at all. I have pretty much nothing to do today, a fridge full of beer, and am happy to engage in worthless debates on the internet. But Im gonna do it it the politics thread where it belongs.
 
Burgey

Burgey

Well-known member
Athlai said:
Zorax is easy (and fun) to dismiss sometimes, but his mindset towards some of these things provided a fascinating insight into points of views towards "democracy" that I hadn't really considered.
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He’s been brainwashed
 
Burgey

Burgey

Well-known member
Bolo. said:
What I find fascinating is that Zorax, pretty much the only regular on the site with a justifiable personal vendetta against the CPC, is also pretty much the only person willing to bring any nuance into the discussion.

Anyway, we are gunking this thread up too much with stuff that is barely related to the virus at all. I have pretty much nothing to do today, a fridge full of beer, and am happy to engage in worthless debates on the internet. But Im gonna do it it the politics thread where it belongs.
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It’s zorax - no capital. Do not give him importance which he does not warrant
 
D

D/L

Well-known member
Meridio said:
Okay so I see the death toll for Wuhan has just been revised upwards by 50%. Yep, seems normal.
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Reportedly, by exactly 50% which, in itself, raises suspicions.

What we may be seeing is the Chinese government realising that it cannot credibly, at least outside its own borders, present the impression of a well managed epidemic with figures so out of kilter with what we have seen throughout most of the rest of the world.

The term, "well managed", of course, could never apply to the Chinese government's initial suppression of news about the new virus (and the oppression of those who tried to alert us to it).
 
Spark

Spark

Global Moderator
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nick-o

nick-o

Well-known member
CricAddict said:
Yeah, I stay in Tokyo as well and frustrated on hearing this. Being a risk-averse country and having faced several natural and other disasters, I thought they would take strong steps to protect the people from this virus but they are doing absolutely nothing. People are still freely roaming around in the streets thinking that the mask will save them from everything. Even Indian government is taking much better steps than this.

Having said that, happy to know about one more person being in Japan. Once this is all over and if we are all alive, we should do a CW meet-up in Tokyo if possible.
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Sounds good.

Maybe Days of Grace can come up with a ranking system for where we should meet, which we can tweak every now and then to get the result we want. Miyagi is a Japanese name too, I think, maybe we can ban him just to be on the safe side.

Keep safe. And tell me, where exactly am I supposed to buy a face mask? Haven't seen one in the shops for months.
 
R

RossTaylorsBox

Well-known member
nick-o said:
Sounds good.

Maybe Days of Grace can come up with a ranking system for where we should meet, which we can tweak every now and then to get the result we want. Miyagi is a Japanese name too, I think, maybe we can ban him just to be on the safe side.

Keep safe. And tell me, where exactly am I supposed to buy a face mask? Haven't seen one in the shops for months.
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You'll get sent a couple this week I think.
 
Bahnz

Bahnz

Well-known member
Spark said:
A fluent German speaker will have to confirm this for me but it looks like a random sample of the population using the PCR test in the first week of April in Austria yielded 0.3% positive results:

https://www.sora.at/nc/news-presse/news/news-einzelansicht/news/covid-19-praevalenz-1006.html

A quick look at the JHU page suggests that means they've found ~1/3 - 1/2 of their cases and that the (current) IFR in Austria is indeed about 1-2%.
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Apparently the survey was only for identifying people "acutely infected" with coronavirus, and did not count for asymptomatic cases or cases where people have already recovered from the virus.
 
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Redbacks

Redbacks

Well-known member
The way to cover up deaths is: Lock everyone in their houses and then door knock a few weeks later. Anyone who doesn't answer died of natural causes and can be whisked away in the night and cremated.
 
Spark

Spark

Global Moderator
Bahnz said:
Apparently the survey was only for identifying people "acutely infected" with coronavirus, and did not count for asymptomatic cases or cases where people have already recovered from the virus.
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Yeah this is why someone who actually speaks German would be good so this can be clarified.

I don't see why it would be restricted to "acute infection" though I guess it depends on the nature of the test. If it's a similar test to the ones used in South Korean then it should still catch a lot of mild cases.
 
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hendrix

hendrix

Well-known member
RossTaylorsBox said:
That 400,000 is basically if you did literally nothing. Japan can't do an enforced lockdown because the Constitution doesn't allow it.

Osaka foot traffic is down something like 70% in the main areas. Think Shinjuku is similar as well. The only thing that you can do is hope that everyone just stays inside and does socialist distancing. Anecdotally, people around here have been pretty good about it.
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Spark said:
A fluent German speaker will have to confirm this for me but it looks like a random sample of the population using the PCR test in the first week of April in Austria yielded 0.3% positive results:

https://www.sora.at/nc/news-presse/news/news-einzelansicht/news/covid-19-praevalenz-1006.html

A quick look at the JHU page suggests that means they've found ~1/3 - 1/2 of their cases and that the (current) IFR in Austria is indeed about 1-2%.
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They've started doing on in NZ too. Results to follow
 
Spark

Spark

Global Moderator
Still don't understand what the IMHE model is doing (which is important as a lot of people seem to be taking it at face value and making decisions based off it)



What kind of model is hugely uncertain about what will happen tomorrow but is absolutely confident about what will happen two weeks from now? That seems backwards.

EDIT: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/inf...d-shouldnt-guide-us-policies-critics-say.html

Even the predictions of daily deaths “have been highly inaccurate,” said statistician Sally Cripps of the University of Sydney, who led a team that examined IHME’s up-and-down projections. “It performs poorly even when it predicts the number of next-day deaths: The true number of next-day deaths has been outside the 95% intervals 70% of the time.” If the 95% calculation correctly reflects a model’s uncertainty, then textbook statistics say the true numbers can fall outside that range no more than 5% of the time.
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:mellow:
 
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