viriya
Well-known member
I had barely paid attention to the team ratings in the site before, but since it affects player ratings and cricodds I decided to revisit it. Two big changes:
- Account for home/away matches: higher credit for winning away (lower penalty for losing), higher penalty for losing at home (lower credit for winning). Separate home/away ratings in addition to the existing overall ratings to better understand a team's strength.
- Exponential smoothing past matches: this results in faster decaying of past ratings - required because team make-ups change drastically over a short period of time. Previously some teams had inflated ratings from performances 5+ years before.
I'm pretty happy with the results:
An average team should have a rating around 500. >700 is ATG level, 800+ rarely ever happens (only happened with WI team in the 1980s and the Aus team in the early 2000s in Tests).
One of the biggest differences between home and away ratings right now is with Australia in ODIs. At home they are ATG level (782), outside they are only slightly above average (525).
I expect this to now be better than the ICC ratings, mainly because of accounting for home/away, but also because of the exponential smoothing decay setup not requiring annual resets that change the ratings abruptly (like it does with the ICC ratings).
- Account for home/away matches: higher credit for winning away (lower penalty for losing), higher penalty for losing at home (lower credit for winning). Separate home/away ratings in addition to the existing overall ratings to better understand a team's strength.
- Exponential smoothing past matches: this results in faster decaying of past ratings - required because team make-ups change drastically over a short period of time. Previously some teams had inflated ratings from performances 5+ years before.
I'm pretty happy with the results:
- cricrate | Current Ratings - Test Team
- cricrate | Current Ratings - ODI Team
- cricrate | Current Ratings - T20I Team
- cricrate | Current Ratings - FT20 Team
An average team should have a rating around 500. >700 is ATG level, 800+ rarely ever happens (only happened with WI team in the 1980s and the Aus team in the early 2000s in Tests).
One of the biggest differences between home and away ratings right now is with Australia in ODIs. At home they are ATG level (782), outside they are only slightly above average (525).
I expect this to now be better than the ICC ratings, mainly because of accounting for home/away, but also because of the exponential smoothing decay setup not requiring annual resets that change the ratings abruptly (like it does with the ICC ratings).
