**Official** COVID-19 Discussion

[smalishah84]

Yeah, take care np, take rest and lots of fluids.

The US now officially has the highest number of cases

 

[silentstriker]

USA! USA! We are NUMBER ONE!

 

[Bahnz]

JFC

 

[DriveClub]

This ain't good, but lockdown is probably coming. I have seen the effects of lockdown on people who live alone, and it isnt pretty, even for the antisocial ones. If you can stomache your parents and they have a spare room, moving back in probably isnt the worst thing in terms of your sanity.

Yeah might have to move in with them to save some money, scary times. Not sure when I'll get my next job

 

[_Ed_]

Thinking of you, NP.

 

[silentstriker]

This is getting real in NYC.

 

[silentstriker]

For those that don’t know - one of the many ****ed up things about the system here in the US is that every state has its own licensing board for physicians - so it can take months to get approval to practice elsewhere. Same day is unheard of - and that’s a great job by the governor.

 

[Daemon]

$48bn package announced by the Singapore government yesterday. First time tapping on the reserves since ‘08.

Biggest highlight is a 25% wage support for all local employees, up to $4,600 a month (75% for travel, airlines & f&b) for the entirety of 2020. I’m not sure how it’ll be monitored but it shouldn’t be too hard in theory because you probably have to submit your payroll when you apply and that can be then matched to your CPF (statutory contribution, think superannuation).

Bars and other entertainment outlets closed and social distancing has been enforced.

Anyone coming back from the UK and US is being quarantined in hotels instead of their homes.

Contact tracing teams have been upped to be able to trace 4,000 individuals per day.

Current cases stand at 683 with 2 deaths of which most are imported.

Times like these I really appreciate being in Singapore. Everything just works exactly how it’s supposed to.

 

[FBU]

So does Germany 0.61% and Switzerland 1.63% deaths mean they are using drugs that are working compared to Italy 10.20% and Spain 7.55%?

 

[Spark]

So does Germany 0.61% and Switzerland 1.63% deaths mean they are using drugs that are working compared to Italy 10.20% and Spain 7.55%?

I already explained this re: Germany. I haven't looked closely at Switzerland, some really weird is going on there that I don't understand, but Italy and Spain are too busy dealing with mass carnage to go out and find every mild/asymptomatic case. So their CFRs will be artificially high. No one believes that this disease kills 1 out of every 10 people in effects, that really would be a 1918-level epochal catastrophe.

The CFR is simply known deaths/known cases. If you are, for whatever reason, undercounting the number of cases by a factor of 10, then your CFR will be 10 times higher than it should be.

 

[Chewie]

shouldn't mortality rate compare recovered cases with deaths, rather than active cases and deaths??

 

[Spark]

shouldn't mortality rate compare recovered cases with deaths, rather than active cases and deaths??

You still get the same time lag problem. As Gov Cuomo said, the longer you're in hospital, the more likely you are to die. So "recoveries" are likely to be relatively quick and "deaths" likely to be slow, so you end up getting exactly the same effect of front-loading your recoveries/cases and back-loading your deaths, which means that the CFR will appear lower than people are saying it should be at first (that's if you have a handle on testing) and then rise later as you stop getting new cases and some of your existing cases don't make it out.

 

[Chewie]

It would be much closer to the correct number though wouldn't it?

 

[Spark]

It would be much closer to the correct number though wouldn't it?

Correct number of what, though? CFR is quite literally defined as #deaths/#cases.

 

[Chewie]

didn't realise it was a defined term, i was just thinking closer to representing the chance of someone dying of the disease

 

[Victor Ian]

I want to help my elderly neighbours with their shopping, now that supermarkets have cancelled their deliveries.
What should i do to minimise any chance of creating a point of entry to their household for corona?

 

[TNT]

I want to help my elderly neighbours with their shopping, now that supermarkets have cancelled their deliveries.
What should i do to minimise any chance of creating a point of entry to their household for corona?

Non perishables can be left in garage or other safe place for 24hrs to reduce risk, Pat refrigerated items in plastic bag and seal then wash with disinfectant and leave at door so they can place straight in fridge (I dont know how long virus can survive in fridge).

 

[nightprowler10]

Thanks everyone. Hopefully it's nothing. Biggest challenge has been to keep the little one away.

 

[Spark]

didn't realise it was a defined term, i was just thinking closer to representing the chance of someone dying of the disease

Forgetting the clear correlations with age/***/comorbidity for the time-being, everyone has the same protection against this disease against everyone else, i.e. none, because no immunity. So to some extent it's kind of a luck of the draw thing who gets sick and who doesn't, with the aforementioned factors heavily influencing said draw obvs

EDIT: FWIW South Korea has 139 dead, 4528 recovered, so that's about ~3%. That should go down as time goes on, but the majority of cases they've had are still considered "active" as far as I can tell.

 

[zorax]

UK and Australia to enter a lockdown of 4-6 months apparently

https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...how-long-last-fines-covid-leaving-home-2020-3
https://sydneynews.sydney/sydney-news/australia-closing-down-for-6-months-to-stop-covid-19/6701/

JFC