The American Politics thread

[Spark]

I expected this a few weeks ago but he's way behind in the polls. If he did pull it off he'd probably be in with a good shout for 2020.

Yeah I think the GOP consolidating a bit more around Trump in the last fortnight will make it very hard for him to win it. Would be hilarious though.

 

[Uppercut]

The case for AZ going blue is basically the same as NV except more difficult: the HRC turnout operation + massive and hitherto-unseen-to-polling Latino turnout means she beats her polls by just enough to scrape it.

Yeah, but the turnout operation will be a lot weaker than in NV because it's a less crucial state. I still think it'll stay red.

 

[Spark]

Yeah, but the turnout operation will be a lot weaker than in NV because it's a less crucial state. I still think it'll stay red.

I'm not sure it's that much weaker tbh, though Harry Reid not headkicking certainly helps things in NV and I guess they've had less practice. But it isn't that strong a case, I agree, barring a truly gargantuan turnout (which is possible! In which case things could very interesting all across the South)

 

[Prince EWS]

i expected this a few weeks ago but he's way behind in the polls. If he did pull it off he'd probably be in with a good shout for 2020.

I'm thinking Dems on the day might tactically vote for him and that this isn't showing up in the polls. Johnson is still polling at about 4% in the state too and I think some of it will move to McMullin last minute as well.

 

[Ausage]

Seemed appropriate.

 

[Uppercut]

I'm thinking Dems on the day might tactically vote for him and that this isn't showing up in the polls. Johnson is still polling at about 4% in the state too and I think some of it will move to McMullin last minute as well.

I think there was a threshold that McMullin needed to pass before this would become true, and he didn't quite make it. As it stands Clinton's chances are a little bit too realistic for it to be worth Dems switching their vote.

 

[RossTaylorsBox]

I'm thinking Dems on the day might tactically vote for him and that this isn't showing up in the polls. Johnson is still polling at about 4% in the state too and I think some of it will move to McMullin last minute as well.

Would it be tactical though? If nobody gets to 270 then Trump wins anyway.

 

[RossTaylorsBox]

I'll clarify. The first question is in response to your 5 year qualifier for amnesty. So what about the illegal family of 2 years?

Will probably have to be decided on a case-by-case basis. Personally I'm more lax with families immigrating because I think it's good for the community.

Shame if someone who'd taken the legal as opposed to illegal route for a number of years suddenly wasn't illegible based on your criteria...

I don't understand why they would suddenly become ineligible. In any case, if legal immigration was done faster then hopefully there wouldn't be so much discrepancy.

 

[morgieb]

The site that I made it on flipped the colours around, dunno why.

Alaska a big call, but I have a feeling. The Republican base there is a bit more suburban and minority-leaning than most state parties, and also there's been some ideological disputes here. Add that the late voting might dampen enthuisiam for Trump and....

 

[Prince EWS]

Would it be tactical though? If nobody gets to 270 then Trump wins anyway.

There's a non-zero chance that McMullin wins if no-one gets to 270. I think most Utah Dems would prefer that to Trump, and some might tactically vote once they accept Hillary is no chance in the state. It doesn't have to be a lot; the latest polls had Trump at 33 and McMullin at 28, with Johnson still at 5 as well which IMO is particularly generous.

I think it's on. Or at least I think it's a large enough chance to boldly proclaim before the fact on CW, knowing that everyone will forget about my post if he gets obliterated anyway.

 

[RossTaylorsBox]

Love these fantasy scenarios.

 

[Prince EWS]

If Trump does well enough across the country for Utah to matter then I'm pretty sure he'll be taking Utah, so the fantasy maps that see McMullin as President aren't going to happen. I think he's an even or better chance of winning Utah if Hillary wins reasonably comfortably though, as I expect her to.

 

[silentstriker]

No, it's a zero chance. Come on.

 

[watson]

If Johnson wins New Mexico then there is a mathmatical possibility that he could prevent both Clinton and Trump being President. That would be fun.

Wonder what the odds are?

 

[morgieb]

If Johnson wins New Mexico then there is a mathmatical possibility that he could prevent both Clinton and Trump being President. That would be fun.

Wonder what the odds are?

Probably somewhere near zero.

 

[Prince EWS]

No, it's a zero chance. Come on.

Tbh I think the "nobody gets 270" part is the wildest part of it. I can see McMullin winning Utah, and I can even see Congress picking McMullin in that scenario (very unlikely but within the realms of possibility IMO) but I just can't see Trump doing well enough in the other states he'd need to deprive Hillary of 270 if he couldn't beat McMullin in Utah.

 

[Spikey]

can't wait to destroy PEWS when McMuffin loses

 

[silentstriker]

No, it's zero. Even in the fantasy scenario where they win those states, Congress isn't going to elect anyone other than one of these two. Come on.

 

[Spikey]

bloody hell, pews comes along with an actual possible thing, very small possibility but still A Thing, and then Watson comes along with a similar but much more bizarre thing

 

[Prince EWS]

bloody hell, pews comes along with an actual possible thing, very small possibility but still A Thing, and then Watson comes along with a similar but much more bizarre thing

Yeah if there were any remaining Gary Johnson shaped straws to clutch I'd have been posting about them already.