The French presidency goes to Macron. But it’s only*a reprieve
Like someone who has narrowly escaped a heart attack, Europe can raise a glass and give thanks for the victory of Emmanuel Macron. But the glass is less than half full, and if Europe doesn’t change its ways it will only have postponed the fateful day.........
He is already being described as “Renzi 2.0”, a reference to the Italian would-be-reformist former premier Matteo Renzi. His super-ambitious target is to reduce public spending from 56% of GDP to just – wait for it – 52%. The obstacles to change in France are enormous, from powerful unions and a bloated public sector to farmers who make a habit of blocking roads with tractors. If Macron fails to reform France, in 2022 we may yet have a president Le Pen.........
It’s great that Macron also wants to reform the EU, but that’s not in his gift. With Brexit talks already turning nasty, Britain has moved from being a major ally in European reform to a massive distraction from it. Italy, with higher public debt than France, a fragile banking sector and fractured politics, may produce the next eurozone crisis. The underlying causes of the refugee crisis have not been addressed. Hungary and Poland are governed by anti-liberal populists.
Macron’s proposals for eurozone reform – a common fiscal policy, a joint finance minister, some shared debt, and completion of the banking union – will not go down well with German voters. Above all, he has promised a “Europe that protects”. Yes. But how?
So this is only a reprieve. Everything remains to be done. And Europe is still drinking in the last chance saloon.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/07/french-presidency-macron-reprieve-france-eu