French President Election- The Centre Fights Back?

[Niall]

Arguably the most important and interesting election of 2017 is happening in France. Its been a bumpy ride so far, Alain Juppe was the initial bookies favourite, but was quickly stomped down by the much more right wing Fillon to represent the Republican Party. Fillon however has had a horror few weeks.

https://www.ft.com/content/d6bff950-e7d1-11e6-967b-c88452263daf

The story simply won't go away and is hurting who many considered to be near unstoppable after he beat Juppe.

However he still has a chance, although qualification for the final round is unlikely.

So the other 3 have realistic ambitions for the top job, Hamon who is representing the socialists. He is a better choice than the bland centre right Vallis and Hollande whose approval ratings were brutal, but his polling numbers have been underwhelming, he needs a miracle to reach the last 2, the socialists will come back, but this election is way to early for them.

Then of course is Le Pen who will receive the majority of focus after Trump and Brexit. The good news for her, with Fillon struggling, she should reach the final round pretty comfortably and is odds on to actually get the most votes in the first round. This however is her ceiling, every second round poll for her is struggling and floating around the 35% mark. The problem for her is simply the vast majority of France won't vote for her for many reasons, her policies, xenophobia, horrible father who wastes no opportunity to utter horrific things about issues such as the holocaust, immigration etc. There is also a Niece who has eyes on her job who many feel is undermining her when she gets a chance.

Le Pen vs Le Pen: French far Right?s latest family feud ? POLITICO

So the favourite and the man who I expect to beat Le Pen easily enough in the second round is Macron, the hard left may not warm to him as much as Hamon and Melenchion, but with Le Pen lurking, the French will vote with their head rather than hearts.


An article below on him for those who are possibly unfamiliar .

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...trengthens-bid-to-challenge-established-order

 

[Gnske]

Macron looks interesting I wonder i-

oh, Rothschild. Trash it.

 

[Prince EWS]

I still think Le Pen will win.. and even though she's effectively campaigning on removing an entire level of government from France, and even though I'd win a large sum of money if she did, I still think it'd be a pretty terrible outcome in general.

 

[Burgey]

They should go back to Napoleon I.

 

[Munificent_Fool]

Le Pen is disgusting. She's doing a better job of hiding it though.

 

[StephenZA]

2017-could-be-a-turning-point-for-european-integration-but-not-in-the-way-you-think
Read this yesterday... interesting take on the situation. Probably an over optimistic view though.

 

[watson]

I still think Le Pen will win.. and even though she's effectively campaigning on removing an entire level of government from France, and even though I'd win a large sum of money if she did, I still think it'd be a pretty terrible outcome in general.

The French election is not like the US election or Brexit where all the voting happens in one hit. The French have two goes at voting for their new President so they have time to take a deep breath and think about the enormity of what they are about to do. The 'safer' option is therefore more likely to win IMO.

Emmanuel Macron on course to beat Marine Le Pen in French presidential election, according to polls
Emmanuel Macron on course to beat Marine Le Pen in French presidential election, according to polls | The Independent

France election fears ease as polls suggest Macron will beat Le Pen
France election fears ease as polls suggest Macron will beat Le Pen

 

[Francis]

I was thinking of starting a thread like this, so thank you Watson.

This is a tough one to predict. It feels so similar to Trump's victory where the polls had him wrong.

I was holidaying recently with a French friend of mine who wanted Fillon. But the air has gone out of his sails.

I think the French system is great in that you get a 'breather'. After the initial shock of Trump's victory, would the USA have voted for him again a second time?

I don't think le Pen will win... but I said that about Trump.

That said, le Pen is far worse than Trump in her policies, and she'll bring in worse anti-immigration laws than Trump ever tried!

 

[Uppercut]

My read is that the French establishment right won't vote for Le Pen the way the American one voted for Trump. I'm also inclined to trust the polls not to make the kind of 20-30 point error Le Pen would need. Can definitely see some possible scenarios in which she wins, though.

 

[morgieb]

I think Le Pen can beat Fillon (he strikes me as exactly the sort of candidate than can lose to Le Pen; certainly if I were French I'd honestly not care who won if it was those two for the Presidency), but Macron would be a bridge too far. The only trouble is that the right seems stronger/less divided than the left, so a Le Pen/Fillon top two still seems plausible in my eyes.

 

[Niall]

I still think Le Pen will win.. and even though she's effectively campaigning on removing an entire level of government from France, and even though I'd win a large sum of money if she did, I still think it'd be a pretty terrible outcome in general.

The fallout of a Le Pen win would be horrific, genuinely best to try not to think about it!

I have backed Macron numerous times, I must say politics long term betting is fantastic, so often in this race, they have been way to slow to react big stories e.g Fillon corruption.

My read is that the French establishment right won't vote for Le Pen the way the American one voted for Trump. I'm also inclined to trust the polls not to make the kind of 20-30 point error Le Pen would need. Can definitely see some possible scenarios in which she wins, though.

Macron unlike Clinton is a pretty inoffensive nomination for the French centre and right and The Republicans are a much more established party than the National Front who only a few years ago were noisy but pretty irrelevant in French politics. Le Pen has so many issues that will be tough to resolve in a few months, the stigma of voting for Le Pen still is an issue for many, her numbers with old people are poor, they don't like her for many reasons and her links with Russia.

She isn't a no hoper, but it will be very hard for her to win a second round against both especially Macron.

 

[fredfertang]

The Parisian branch of the fertang family reckons Macron

 

[fredfertang]

................. although he reckons Le Pen will win the first round

 

[NZTailender]

I wonder if Marine Le Pen's campaign will be based out of Keroman.

 

[Ausage]

Le Pen has so many issues that will be tough to resolve in a few months, the stigma of voting for Le Pen still is an issue for many, her numbers with old people are poor, they don't like her for many reasons and her links with Russia.

She isn't a no hoper, but it will be very hard for her to win a second round against both especially Macron.

There was a ton of stigma around Trump too and you can make an argument that this stigma affected polling but not how people ended up voting on election day. Or is there something about France specifically that makes it more relevant?

 

[watson]

Latest Sportsbet odds;

Emmanuel Macron = $2.10
Marine Le Pen = $2.75
Francois Fillon = $4.33
Benoit Hamon = $26.00
Jean-Luc Melenchoc = $81.00

The most recent Figaro/LCI poll has Macron and Le Pen at 58/42 per cent chance respectively. 42 is Le Pen's all time peak against Macron.

Emmanuel Macron on course to beat Marine Le Pen in French presidential election, according to polls | The Independent

 

[Niall]

There was a ton of stigma around Trump too and you can make an argument that this stigma affected polling but not how people ended up voting on election day. Or is there something about France specifically that makes it more relevant?

Different parties though, The Republicans have been winning elections for a long time and have a very loyal base, the front have been on the fringes for a long time on the other hand. The republicans at least had Clinton to rally against, so they could rationalise voting for Trump as lesser of two evils.

Le Pen is shaky with old people which is in a crucial base, many believe that is not just due to her anti EU stance is also due to the fact they remember how horrific the party and her father were for so long until Marine tried to clean it up, the old generation have not forgotten. Speaking to French people, the higher you go up the food chain, the contempt for Le Pen grows, yep she and more likely her number 2 have made the party less toxic, but this election for many might still be to early for some to vote for her.

 

[Uppercut]

There was a ton of stigma around Trump too and you can make an argument that this stigma affected polling but not how people ended up voting on election day. Or is there something about France specifically that makes it more relevant?

I don't think you could make that argument about Trump, because the polls measured his vote share quite accurately. Unless there was something about the mid-west specifically that made people less inclined to admit to voting for Trump, which is possible, but there are better explanations. In any case, outperforming the polls in a specific geographical region like that wouldn't do for Le Pen. Gotta win nationally.

 

[the big bambino]

Le Pen is shaky with old people which is in a crucial base,

Speaking to French people, the higher you go up the food chain, the contempt for Le Pen grows,

That is an interesting demographic quirk and the highlighted is a phrase which probably and inadvertently captures the political divide in the West right now.

 

[Magrat Garlick]

Fillon's wife has been taken into custody for fraudulent wage claims.

Have to think he's toast, and think most parts of the political spectrum would get round Macron in the run-off.

Edit: conflicting reports, now apparently she's only been called in for questioning at some future date. Bloody foreign tongues...