World Politics Thread

[watson]

“Our aim is to build a society which will not be bound by the dictates of arbitrary authority, comfortable superstition, stifling tradition, or suffocating orthodoxy but would rather be based on reason, compassion, humanity, equality and science,” Roy described the founding mission during a 2007 interview. By its creator’s description, it was the first South Asian humanist and rationalist forum on the internet.

Amen.

 

[Bahnz]

I think we can sort of forget about how awful nuclear war could be since the end of the Cold War and we should still be trying to cut down the amounts of nuclear weapons in existence. I don't recall it being high on the world agenda since the Iraq War and the rise of various Islamist groups.

Yeah, agree with this completely. In the long run I think the numbers of nuclear weapons in Russia and America will have to decline, as the massive Cold War era arsenals are mind-bogglingly expensive to maintain. But in the short term its still really scary to read things like this:

Russia Nuclear Weapons Train -- Combat Railway Missile Complex

in conjunction with things like this:

Norwegian rocket incident - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[andmark]

I'm usually a fan of the theory of peace through a need to avoid Mutually Assured Destruction (I know the theory has some big name but I can't think of it), but the conflict in Ukraine has really put it to the test. In the pre-nuclear weapons days, there would have been possibility of war between Russia and the west because of the west's need to avoid a growing Russian threat in the Balkans. This would have made Russian actions in Ukraine incredibly risky for Russia because of that possibility- and very possibly they would have avoided military involvement in Ukraine. However, because of nuclear weapons, the west can't risk nuclear war against Russia because of MAD and so can't risk war against Russia in any sense- giving Russia much more maneuverability in Ukraine.

 

[ankitj]

I hear we're looking to sign a non-aggression pact with Mars next week, while free trade negotiations with Neptune are going swimmingly.

With the whole Mars one mission, it might soon be needed!

As an aside, Mars one is such a crazy, ambitious mission. Those signing up for it must have some guts too.

 

[Magrat Garlick]

free trade negotiations with Neptune are going swimmingly.

all the likes

 

[Dan]

I'm usually a fan of the theory of peace through a need to avoid Mutually Assured Destruction (I know the theory has some big name but I can't think of it), but the conflict in Ukraine has really put it to the test. In the pre-nuclear weapons days, there would have been possibility of war between Russia and the west because of the west's need to avoid a growing Russian threat in the Balkans. This would have made Russian actions in Ukraine incredibly risky for Russia because of that possibility- and very possibly they would have avoided military involvement in Ukraine. However, because of nuclear weapons, the west can't risk nuclear war against Russia because of MAD and so can't risk war against Russia in any sense- giving Russia much more maneuverability in Ukraine.

Even Mearsheimer, who suggested nuclear stability theory in the first place, has since distanced himself from it. Literally no serious person in the international relations field actually thinks MAD is a good policy idea to artificially create; its all about managing it.

 

[andmark]

Even Mearsheimer, who suggested nuclear stability theory in the first place, has since distanced himself from it. Literally no serious person in the international relations field actually thinks MAD is a good policy idea to artificially create; its all about managing it.

It seems like such a stupidly risky theory to stick to anyway I suppose, because if it's wrong, the world ends.

 

[cpr]

With the whole Mars one mission, it might soon be needed!

As an aside, Mars one is such a crazy, ambitious mission. Those signing up for it must have some guts too.

Nah, the male science geeks are doing it to increase their chances of getting laid.

 

[Bahnz]

It seems like such a stupidly risky theory to stick to anyway I suppose, because if it's wrong, the world ends.

It is in some sense. But at the same time, MAD is excruciatingly difficult to crawl out of. If either the Americans or Russians were to unilaterally engage in large-scale nuclear disarmament, that would leave them completely at the mercy of their MAD partner. You need agreements on both sides to reduce armaments, and that requires trust and international oversight - both of which are in short supply atm.

Like I said, eventually both sides will be forced to retreat from their current positions because of the sheer cost of maintaining it - the Russians have been recycling their surplus nukes for use in nuclear power stations for decades. The US are spending about $350 billion in the next decade on their nukes. Russia will probably be spending substantially less - especially now that the oil price has collapsed - and that's scary in and of itself. However, this will likely take a long time (probably decades) before nuke numbers return to 'reasonable' levels.

 

[Spark]

I'm usually a fan of the theory of peace through a need to avoid Mutually Assured Destruction (I know the theory has some big name but I can't think of it), but the conflict in Ukraine has really put it to the test. In the pre-nuclear weapons days, there would have been possibility of war between Russia and the west because of the west's need to avoid a growing Russian threat in the Balkans. This would have made Russian actions in Ukraine incredibly risky for Russia because of that possibility- and very possibly they would have avoided military involvement in Ukraine. However, because of nuclear weapons, the west can't risk nuclear war against Russia because of MAD and so can't risk war against Russia in any sense- giving Russia much more maneuverability in Ukraine.

You say this like Russia is working from a position of strength rather than a position of extreme weakness, which is far closer to the truth.

 

[andmark]

You say this like Russia is working from a position of strength rather than a position of extreme weakness, which is far closer to the truth.

I wouldn't say strength, rather enough strength to act in Ukraine without many reprisals other than sanctions (which albeit have had an effect in combination with the drop in oil prices). The fact that they've bothered with all of this of course shows weakness,

 

[andmark]

BBC News - Egypt to build new administrative and business capital

This Egyptian govt has been rather ambitious economically with planning a second Suez Canal and now a new business capital

 

[ankitj]

Very interesting dynamics emerging in Indian ocean states with India actively reaching out to them for strategic and economic partnerships. Most interesting is the case with Sri Lanka. Under the previous president, Mahinda Rajapaksha, Sri Lanka had grown closer ties with China much to India's alarm. With change in govt both in India and Sri Lanka, the tide seems to reversing and China is alarmed.

Modi's Jaffna visit interference in Lankan affairs: Chinese think-tank

 

[smalishah84]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/26/world/middleeast/al-anad-air-base-houthis-yemen.html

Well, Saudi Arabia invading Yemen? can this be the beginning of a larger shia sunni war?

 

[ankitj]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/26/world/middleeast/al-anad-air-base-houthis-yemen.html

Well, Saudi Arabia invading Yemen? can this be the beginning of a larger shia sunni war?

Can Houthis be described as Shia version of ISIS?

 

[ankitj]

Very interesting and strange developments taking place between Greece and Garmany btw. After election of Alexis Tsipras as Greek prime minister, Greece is posturing to not implement the austerity program. Most surprisingly, they are renewing demand for reparations for world war II attrocities. Amazing blackmailing tactics. Interesting read:

Greece v Germany: Dangerous liaisons | The Economist

 

[fredfertang]

The Greeks need to learn a bit of humility, otherwise they'll be a third world country in a couple of years time

 

[smalishah84]

Can Houthis be described as Shia version of ISIS?

No. Nothing suggests that they are anywhere near as twisted as the ISIS.

 

[smalishah84]

In the.meanwhile US supporting shia groups backed by Iran against ISIS in iraq while supporting saudi strikes against iran backed rebels in yemen. What a mess.

 

[ankitj]

Greece gone full ******.

Greece demands ?279bn from Germany in Nazi war reparations - Telegraph

Edit: why is that word blocked in here? Didn't know it's considered offensive. Google autocorrect doesn't omit the word.