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37th Match - New Zealand v Australia

Who will win the match?


  • Total voters
    16

Bahnz

Well-known member
Think there was the legacy of a few different things going into this innings.

Firstly, our lower middle order has been garbage for the last four years and so the top/middle play more conservatively to avoid losing wickets than they might otherwise. However neesham/cdg/santner are... Ok. They have performed reasonably this tournament and are the best we have. Might need to trust them more to play longer innings if needed, rather than just biff at the end (which btw, they're less capable of against the very top bowlers).

Secondly, this approach of end-loading the chase to win in the last over (or near enough) has worked a couple of times this tournament, even though it possibly shouldn't have. Especially against SA where we got out of jail.

So we've dialled it too far towards the careful start and this was a reality check. We also have Nicholls now instead of the more aggressive (but useless) Munro, so it's pretty clear this means Guptill and Taylor need to up the scoring #intent, be #proactive and #earntheright. As long as we've learned that from this loss, we can move on better.

The bowling is mostly good and Boult and Ferguson are playing with freedom and enjoying themselves. Santner should be better, Henry too, and even the part timers have done a job. Can click at the right time, though the top sides have a lot of batting.

Need to approach the England game like it's a must-win. It's probably not, but who wants to limp into the semis a distant fourth. I would oddly like to play Australia again in the semi, attack with the ball and give a better account of ourselves. Either get the monkey off our back and deserve a final spot, or lose (gloriously). Nothing to lose.
yeah, i'd rather play Australia than India. India just seem to have too many bases covered for us. Australia are better than NZ, but their top-order batting is an exploitable vulnerability for our pace attack.

Currently, the most likely semi's scenario looks like 1 Aus; 2 Ind; 3 Eng; 4 NZ - so in a weird way I wouldn't mind a close loss to England
 

Athlai

Not Terrible
Would far rather we play India TBH. It's in England, India can lollapse against swing and they don't have Starc in their team.
 
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SteveNZ

Well-known member
Yeah definitely I suppose what I meant was that he didn't get the wickets he deserved, a lot of edges and play and misses, mistimes shots etc. Williamson seemed to really struggle against him especially. But his figures and impact on the game was very respectable.
Nah I totally get it. All I was pointing out is that I imagine he's playing the exact role they want him to play. They'll take 0-40 every single time. He bowled superbly.

And my other point is that when we let him bowl, he's so hard to score off. I haven't watched as much of him as Australian posters obviously but I imagine the times he hasn't bowled well in ODIs, it's when people have come down and tried to wack him off a length. He does have subtlety of length, flight etc but unless I'm not aware he doesn't have too much to scare right handers coming down the track. He just sat on a length with good bounce v us and he was so hard to even milk.
 

Bahnz

Well-known member
Would far rather we play India TBH. It's in England, India can lollapse against swing and they don't have Starc in their team.
Australia just as liable to do this as India imo. And while India don't have Starc, their all-round bowling attack is a little better and more adaptable to different conditions.
 

Burgey

Well-known member
Australia just as liable to do this as India imo. And while India don't have Starc, their all-round bowling attack is a little better and more adaptable to different conditions.
TBF Australia did do that two days ago, and dicked NZ by 80 odd.
 

Bahnz

Well-known member
Yeah, I know, like I said Australia are better than NZ, and would be expected to win again. I just reckon we'd have a better chance against them than India.
 

Burgey

Well-known member
India and Australia are actually quite similar - both heavily reliant on the top order, with middle orders which have problems accelerating when required. India has an edge there with Pandya over Stoinis, though I think Australia could overcome that problem to an extent by promoting Carey to six. He's in ridiculous form, and Stoinis at seven is a genuine biff merchant who could play his natural game instead of pretending to be a batsman. Dhoni and Khawaja have both also come in for a large amount of stick this tourney from their supporters, but both are capable of stemming a collapse, which I reckon is really important in English conditions where you can draw a deck with a bit in it. India has a couple of decent spinners but they can be got at. Pandya certainly is a lot better than Australia's fifth bowler. Loved Finch mixing the fifth lot of overs between four blokes - it makes it harder for batsmen to settle against the dross than if they get an over or two to have a look at it and know that Maxwell and Stoinis are going to bowl ten between them

I think the fifth bowler gives India an edge overall between the two sides. But if there's a bit in the deck then Stoinis actually becomes better than useless, and would genuinely be handy if Carey was good enough to stand up to the stumps so the batsmen had to stay at home against him.
 
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stephen

Well-known member
Stoinis as a bowler has been pretty good this tournament. His death bowling has been remarkably decent. Its his batting that sucks - he's batting too low to bat the way he bats, which is how a number 3 or 4 bats, but he's not going to replace Khawaja or Smith.

Really Stoinis should float. He should come in at 5 if the third wicket falls before the 30th over. He should drop down to 7 if the third wicket falls after the 35th over.
 

vcs

Well-known member
Like Athlai said, Australia have Starc. He's a one-man wrecking ball that no other team has.
 

zorax

likes this
Like Athlai said, Australia have Starc. He's a one-man wrecking ball that no other team has.
Starc in 2019 WC = 3 WPI, SR 18.58
Shami in 2019 WC = 3.33 WPI, SR 12.08

Starc in all WCs = 2.875 WPI, SR SR 18
Shami in all WCs = 3 WPI, SR 17.4
 

zorax

likes this
Leaving out all stats related to economy... What are their averages?
Unlike Athlai, I won't go around asking people to do their own research on the stats that I bring up in a convo

Across all WCs, Starc averages 12.97, Shami 13.96

In this WC, Starc averages 15.54, Shami 9.61
 

zorax

likes this
Damn. Can't help but think Shami might be on a hot run of form that could end any minute though
Well tbf there is a clear gap in quality of bowling when you watch them. Shami benefits from having a stronger attack around him - batsmen are taking more risks vs his bowling than they would vs Starc.
 

OverratedSanity

Well-known member
Shami without bumrah would have worse stats for sure. He's still really really good though, especially up front with the new ball.
 

vcs

Well-known member
Well tbf there is a clear gap in quality of bowling when you watch them. Shami benefits from having a stronger attack around him - batsmen are taking more risks vs his bowling than they would vs Starc.
Yeah, Starc is clearly ahead of everyone else by a clear margin as an ODI bowler. I would say Boult and Bumrah are probably the next best after him.
 

stephen

Well-known member
They're my top 3 fast bowlers currently. Malinga 6 years ago was up there. Rabada is up there too, despite being rubbish in this world cup (is he carrying an injury?)

Archer, Cummins, Ngidi, Shami, Ferguson and Henry are all on their way.

Of those, Shami has played the most with 65 matches.
 
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